P-D editorial uses some research from Will Winter to address the migration around the region by age
— The net loss of black residents in St. Louis and the net gain of blacks in St. Louis County are most pronounced among kids and teenagers and adults aged 20 to 54, admittedly a wide spread.
— The number of white St. Louis residents aged 20 to 54 has held fairly steady, while the number of teens and children has grown.
At this level of detail, it’s difficult to say with certainty what the data indicate, but some possibilities come to mind:
For some black families with children in St. Louis, a soft real estate market and public school systems that are more stable may be drawing them to newly affordable homes in St. Louis County.
In the city, meanwhile, the number of white families holding steady as the number of teens and kids increases might suggest that families no longer reflexively flee the city when they have children or when their children reach school age.
While it’s impossible to get hard numbers, the story appears to be that the northwest quadrant of the city is losing population rapidly with most of the population moving to the County and a significant chunk to the Southeast Quadrant.
If the hypothesis is correct, what we can expect to see in 2011 is the mother of all redistricting battles for the northwest side wards.
Citywide the story is far more interesting. Simplistic analysis would say it helps Slay quite a bit by playing on his strengths of traditional white voters and those who have moved into the city. That’s somewhat true, but if we do see a McMillan-Slay race McMillan has attempted to position himself well with progressive whites–especially those who have moved in and aren’t as allied with traditional ward organizations. The real key to such a hypthetical race is the Southeast quadrant and the African-American population that is largely not organized. Reed made some inroads there for his President of the BOA race, but no one has done the serious organizing in that area of the city yet–made only harder by a fairly high rate of mobility. Given the changing demographics what would have been called a northside versus southside race becomes a southwest versus northeast and a scramble for the southeast quadrant votes by candidates.
Favazza in such a race cannot win–though he will entertain me. In a three way race with Slay and the hypothetical McMillan or similar candidate, Slay loses a bit of his vote in the Southwest quadrant making that Southeast quadrant even more important. On top of that Wards 15 and 17 become crucial with 15 having a more unalligned progressive group and 17 having a significant African-American, but seldom voting population. The traditional tiebreaker of the central corridor gets splits between the two candidates because of their respective strengths.
Obviously, this is all conjecture and depends on who gets in and how, but the new road to citywide election isn’t the simple southside versus northside that everyone uses as a crutch.
Ask Hubbard if you don’t believe me.