I can vouch for Momentum Analysis’ work–they did the polling for Jeff Smith in 2006. While partisan polls for campaigns are always a bit suspect, Margie Omero runs a tight ship. The challenge this year is figuring out turnout, of course.
The polling memo:
To: Baker for Congress
From: Margie Omero
Momentum Analysis
Re: Recent polling in MO-9
Date: August 20, 2008
In the August 5 primary, Judy Baker emerged with both a larger vote total and a larger vote percentage than Blaine Luetkemeyer. Our recent, post-primary polling confirms Baker’s strength. She is more popular among those who know her, and has a 2-point lead over her opponent.
Baker is more popular than Luetkemeyer among those who know each
Despite negative attacks from her opponents in the primary, far more voters are favorable toward Baker (30%) than unfavorable (8%). Four times as many have a “very favorable” impression as have a “very unfavorable” one (12%, 3%, respectively). Even Republicans are more likely to be favorable than favorable than unfavorable (Republican women: 13% favorable, 8% unfavorable; Republican men: 17% favorable, 15% unfavorable).
|
|
fav |
unfav |
|
Baker – overall |
30 |
8 |
|
Luetkemeyer – overall |
33 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
Baker – GOP women |
13 |
8 |
|
Baker – GOP men |
17 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
Luetkemeyer – Dem women |
20 |
23 |
|
Luetkemeyer – Dem men |
17 |
34 |
By contrast, Blaine Luetkemeyer’s negative primary took a toll. His favorables are comparable to Baker’s, but his unfavorables are twice as high (33% favorable, 16% unfavorable). Not even twice as many have a “very favorable” impression as have a “very unfavorable” (11%, 7%, respectively). And unlike Baker, he is unpopular with voter outside his own party, particularly with Democratic men.
Baker leads Luetkemeyer
This advantage in popularity translates into an advantage in the vote. Without any candidate messaging, Baker leads
Luetkemeyer (41% Baker, 39% Luetkemeyer, 3% Millay, 16% undecided). Baker leads among women (45% Baker, 36% Luetkemeyer), and does better with Democrats (78% Baker, 12% Luetkemeyer) than Luetkemeyer does with Republicans (14% Baker, 66% Luetkemeyer).
Judy Baker begins the general election strong from her competitive primary win. She leads Luetkemeyer before the campaigns have engaged on issues such as health care for seniors, women, kids, and newborns. With adequate resources, Baker can continue to expand her lead, and turn this seat from Red to Blue in November.
This memo is based on a survey of 400 general election voters in Missouri’s 9th CD. A voter file sample was used, and respondents were further screened for likely November 2008 voters. Interviews were conducted by telephone, August 12-14, 2008. The margin of error for the survey overall is +/- 4.9%. The margin of error for subgroups is larger.
There are two races now in Missouri in play for Democrats with Kay Barnes run in MO-6.